Green Goo  --
          Life in the Era of Humane Genocide

                 Copyright 1993 
                 by Nick Szabo
   distribute freely with attribution, without alteration


	References

Central Planning for Ideal Populations

Environmentalists have ambitions far beyond what they can
seemingly achieve.  Take, for example, the Wildlands Project,
which contemplates confiscation and restoration of 50% of the
land area in the U.S. lower 48.  Even more ambitious and
controversial are the ideal "steady state" or "sustainable" population
numbers promoted by many ecologists.   For example Alan McGowen, a
prolific contributor to sci.bio.ecology, promotes his long-range
plan for reducing human population nearly two orders of
magnitude, to 100 million people, and constructs an elaborate
ecological and ethical case to justify this strongly pursued
goal.  The impact of either the overall or differential
population reduction on human economics and civilization?
Irrelevant to many environmentalists, compared to their goal
of creating an idealized Garden of Eden on earth.  At the
extreme we have groups that openly promote the excision
of "human cancer" from the revered Gaia.  Are they merely
dreaming, or do tools exist to make their dreams come true?

Viral Coercion

Much has been made of the speculative possibility of "gray goo" --
self-replicating nanomachines that consume most biological and
industrial materials, destroying civilization in the process.
Gray goo relies on very advanced versions of postulated atomic-precision
robots capable of fine, very-high-frequency control over chemical reactions,
and is thus theoretical possibility in the distant future.  But another
weapon of replication and destruction is being created in biotech
labs today, for the specific purpose of population control.  These
viruses, designed to eliminate species from entire continents and
potentially the entire planet, might well be called, reflecting their
ecological purpose, "green goo".  Unlike the imagined nanotechnology
threats, both motive and means for perpetrating green goo distaster
exist, making it a vastly more probable scenario.

The first use of genetically engineered viruses for population
control has been announced in Australia.  Biotech engineers say
they can completely eradicate two species of mammal, the red fox
and the European rabbit, from entire continent.

Previously viruses were imported from other continents for this
purpose.  In 1859 overeager British colonizers introduced the rabbit
and red fox to Australia.  Rabbits soon became a major pest.  As early as
1888 Louis Pasteur suggested killing off the rabbits by
deliberately introducing a disease, and in 1950 somebody actually
tried it.

Rabbits in Brazil carry a harmless virus called myxomatosis,
spread by mosquitoes.  But when European rabbits were exported
to Brazil, over 99% of them died from this disease.  In 1950 the virus
was introduced into rabbit warrens in a remote region of Australia.
Ultimately the disease spread through Australia, moving most rapidly
when moist conditions or standing water encouraged the mosquito
vectors.  At first, the 99% death rate held, but the rabbit
and virus population co-evolved to a nonlethal equilibrium.  Even
so, over 80% of all the rabbits in Australia had been killed before
the epidemic played itself out.

Humane Genocide

The virus currently being genetically engineered to eradicate the red
fox in Australia can produce more complete results in a more humane
manner.  The virus turns female red fox's immune system against male
sperm, rendering females infertile.   This may be the first truly
effective green goo.  Because it is fine-tuned by genetic engineering,
and because new viruses can be designed and released to take up where
the last virus petered out, these new viruses can overcome genetic
adaptation of the target population and reduce it to extinction.
Moreover, the creation of such viruses is well-understood technology.
Deploying green goo targeted at human populations -- either specific
races or our entire species in general -- would be, like the red fox
virus program, a relatively simple and inexpensive biotech project,
well within the capabilities of hundreds of biotech labs around the
planet.

Because sterilization is a far more humane form of genocide than
gas chambers, some of the ecologists and Green activists might
have little objection to releasing engineered viruses to reduce
human populations to their "ideal" level.  The humane nature of a
sterility virus also makes it far more effective than traditional
forms of genocide, which involve visible, violent death and thus stir
the passions of people into resistance.  A sterility virus not only
blocks human reproduction, it also makes an end run around the
genetically evolved emotions which motivate such reproduction.  The only
defense against such a virus is a rational assessment of its consequences,
and the ability to motivate extreme, prolonged defense based on that
emotionally neutral knowledge.

How Can We Fight Green Goo?

Green goo might take many forms -- retrovirus, herpesvirus, RNA
virus, DNA virus, protein virus (prion), etc.  It might take
the form of a humane, very effective sterility virus, or a cruder
disease which destroys both the fertility and the health of the
victim.  At the terroristic extreme, but less effective for the
purposes of genocide, it might produce prolonged illness and death,
like HIV.  Biotechnology has now created a wide variety of viruses
for the purposes of research, genetic therapy, and now population
control; but it has never been able to cure any kind of viral
disease.  Sometimes vaccines have been developed within a few years;
in many other cases they haven't.

The best personal strategy may be to learn as much about a
green goo's disease vectors as early as possible, and train oneself
to avoid the situations and behaviors that tend to enable
those vectors.  Small motivated groups might use technology
developed by Biosphere II and other closed-ecosystem projects.
We might build largely self-sufficient communities physically
isolated from the rest of the planet, at least to the extent of
eliminating all possible green goo vectors.  People can then maintain
a rich non-physical interaction with the outside world via
virtual reality.  The most important survival factor may be
recognizing the the emergence of green goo as early as possible, and
taking these paranoid-looking preventitive steps as early as possible.

Given the current cultural environment, both ethical and
technological, green goo seems inevitable.  But while it
may take drastic action to avoid, green goo need not
achieve its genocidal aims on those who keep a lookout for
it, and act early and effectively to prevent its spread once
it has appeared.